The Law of Averages and You

Averages rule the universe. You may be more familiar with this statement as the law of averages. Let me give you an example as a refresher on the law of averages. When you roll a typical 6-sided die, what are the chances that you will get a 6 for ten rolls in a row? Everyone knows that that is highly unlikely to happen. Why? Because you’re just as likely to roll a 5, a 4, a 3, a 2, or a 1 as you are to roll a 6. This law is very important to know if you want to be able to succeed and prosper in your life and in your business.

You may be thinking, “If everything works out to be pretty much the average, how the heck am I supposed to get ahead?” That’s a great question. Let me tell you. You learn to beat the law of averages when you know how it works. For example, during the pandemic I saw that things such as oil and travel were down. However, knowing the law of averages and cycles, I knew that even though the economy was low in those areas at the time, we would eventually get out of the pandemic and things would start to go back to their average. Therefore, I decided to purchase some stocks in oil, some cruise lines, and some airlines. Sure enough, about a year later, they were still on the rise and I had doubled my initial investment.

Let’s look at how this works in appraising. Take a moment to consider your local market. Is it up? Is it down? Regardless, it will follow a cycle – it will tend to go up and down around the average. Knowing that pattern will allow you to make important decisions regardless of where you are in the cycle. If there’s one thing I know when it comes to this principle, it is that truly successful people – professionally, financially, and privately – know this rule, and are able to make decisions accoridingly.

For more information on this subject, please download and listen to The Appraiser Coach Podcast Episode: 

5 thoughts on “The Law of Averages and You”

  1. When it comes to appraising, the powers that be have been rigging the system with loaded dice for years. Meaning, its all about taking money / power away from the small independent appraiser (AMC splits, upload fees, bids with no refunds to the borrower, waivers, hybrid appraisals, etc.) and lining the pockets of a few. Some have stood up and have spread the truth regarding the madness, while others have swallowed their morals in pursuit of profits.

    Regarding averages, the only one I’m aware of is in Dustin’s office where with the help of cubicle 1 and 7 it takes on average 52.5 seconds to pull a comp.

    Good point Gary.

    Seek the truth.

    1. I apologize Dustin, I am getting old. You clarified you were talking about putting comps in report, not pulling comps in your last blog. I have decided not to be a coward anymore. When can I be on your podcast?

      Seek the truth.

  2. Just be careful about averages in appraisal. I read many appraisal reports and often I see appraisers averaging rather than reconciling. I know it’s off topic, but there is a big difference and it is the difference between appraisal and a calculation.

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